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SKA Rostov vs Zenit Penza — Cup 2019

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
Preview
15:00
Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
7/29/2026CupCup · Round of 64
43%
Zenit Penza
model favours
33%24%43%

SKA Rostov and Zenit Penza have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SKA Rostov33%
×Draw24%
Zenit Penza43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
1.38
Zenit Penza
1.63

Zenit Penza creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.00
Zenit Penza
0.50

allows per match

SKA Rostov
2.75
Zenit Penza
1.75

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Zenit Penza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
57%
SKA Rostov or Zenit Penza
76%
Draw or Zenit Penza
67%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
15%
Zenit Penza wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
75%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
40%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
16%
Zenit Penza 1+ goals
80%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
48%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
43%
Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.00 + Zenit Penza defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zenit Penza attack 0.50 + SKA Rostov defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
33%
level
24%
Zenit Penza scores more
43%

Zenit Penza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rostov
DLWWW
Penza
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SKA Rostov face Zenit Penza (Cup)

Cup returns with SKA Rostov hosting Zenit Penza. Match starts July 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.