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Ska-khabarovsk vs Tekstilshchik — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
16:00
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
11/7/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
58%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
58%25%18%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk58%
×Draw25%
Tekstilshchik18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.64
Tekstilshchik
0.79

Ska-khabarovsk creates 108% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.49
Tekstilshchik
0.64

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.95
Tekstilshchik
1.79

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
82%
Ska-khabarovsk or Tekstilshchik
75%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
42%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
31%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
81%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
49%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
23%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
55%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
19%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
76%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.49 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tekstilshchik attack 0.64 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
58%
level
25%
Tekstilshchik scores more
18%

Ska-khabarovsk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running
  • Ska-khabarovsk have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Tekstilshchik
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk face Tekstilshchik (First League)

First League returns with Ska-khabarovsk hosting Tekstilshchik. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ska-khabarovsk host Tekstilshchik at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.