Ska-khabarovsk vs Rotor Volgograd

Ska-khabarovsk

Preview

16:00

Rotor Volgograd

11/21/2026

First League · Round 18Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

39%

Ska-khabarovsk

model favours

39%29%32%

1–1

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk39%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Ska-khabarovsk

1.19

Rotor Volgograd

1.04

Ska-khabarovsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 40 away

1.43

creates per match

1.15

0.93

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.93

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

68%

Ska-khabarovsk or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

61%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

17%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

70%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

33%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

12%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

65%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

28%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

55%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

39%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

32%

Ska-khabarovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Ska-khabarovsk

LDLWD

Volgograd

LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff