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Ska-khabarovsk vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
CANC
00:00
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
5/2/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk52%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar 221%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.50
Krasnodar 2
0.85

Ska-khabarovsk creates 76% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
79%
Ska-khabarovsk or Krasnodar 2
74%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
48%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
27%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
78%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
44%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
19%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
57%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
21%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
71%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
52%
level
26%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
21%

Ska-khabarovsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk face Krasnodar 2 (First League)

First League returns with Ska-khabarovsk hosting Krasnodar 2. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.