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Ska-khabarovsk vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
4/3/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
Big match
45%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
45%28%27%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk45%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.32
FK Neftekhimik
0.97

Ska-khabarovsk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.41
FK Neftekhimik
1.00

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.93
FK Neftekhimik
1.23

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
73%
Ska-khabarovsk or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
55%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
21%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
73%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
38%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
15%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
62%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
25%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
62%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.41 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
45%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
27%

Ska-khabarovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Neftekhimik
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ska-khabarovsk host FK Neftekhimik

April 3, 2027: Ska-khabarovsk take on FK Neftekhimik in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ska-khabarovsk host FK Neftekhimik at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.