Ska-khabarovsk 3–2 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Neftekhimik

11/11/2020

First League · Round 21Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk44%

×Draw28%

FK Neftekhimik28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Ska-khabarovsk

1.29

FK Neftekhimik

0.96

Ska-khabarovsk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 122 away

1.42

creates per match

1.11

0.80

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.42

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.80

FK Neftekhimik

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

72%

Ska-khabarovsk or FK Neftekhimik

72%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

56%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

20%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

72%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

37%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

14%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

62%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

25%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

61%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 139 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.42 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

44%

level

28%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

28%

Ska-khabarovsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff