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Ska-khabarovsk vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2026

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
CANC
22:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
5/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk44%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
0.95

Ska-khabarovsk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 123 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.42
FK Neftekhimik
1.11

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.79
FK Neftekhimik
1.16

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
73%
Ska-khabarovsk or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
56%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
20%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
72%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
37%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
14%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
61%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
25%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
62%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.79 · 140 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.42 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
44%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
27%

Ska-khabarovsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk face FK Neftekhimik (First League)

First League returns with Ska-khabarovsk hosting FK Neftekhimik. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.