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SJK vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK
SJK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
VPS
VPS
1/25/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Wallsport Areena (Seinäjoki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SJK23%
×Draw18%
VPS59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.70
VPS
2.75

VPS creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

SJK
2.29
VPS
4.00

allows per match

SJK
1.50
VPS
1.10

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

SJK or draw
41%
SJK or VPS
82%
Draw or VPS
77%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
11%
VPS wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
82%
SJK 2+ goals
51%
SJK 3+ goals
24%
VPS 1+ goals
93%
VPS 2+ goals
75%
VPS 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
28%
VPS (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 2.29 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.70

VPS attack 4.00 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SJK scores more
23%
level
18%
VPS scores more
59%

VPS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SJK 1–2 VPS

VPS beat SJK 2-1 in Suomen Cup on January 25, 2019.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena (Seinäjoki).