Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SJK vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

SJK
SJK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
10/19/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 5OmaSP Stadion (Seinäjoki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

SJK47%
×Draw26%
Lahti27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.53
Lahti
1.10

SJK creates 39% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 101 away

creates per match

SJK
1.50
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

SJK
1.28
Lahti
1.56

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SJK or draw
73%
SJK or Lahti
74%
Draw or Lahti
53%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
24%
Lahti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
78%
SJK 2+ goals
45%
SJK 3+ goals
20%
Lahti 1+ goals
67%
Lahti 2+ goals
30%
Lahti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
63%
Lahti (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lahti attack 0.93 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SJK scores more
47%
level
26%
Lahti scores more
27%

SJK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK 0 – 0 Lahti

SJK and Lahti drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion (Seinäjoki).