SJK 1–1 Inter Turku: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

SJK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Turku

6/13/2022

Suomen Cup · 6th RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SJK33%

×Draw22%

Inter Turku45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJKExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.86

SJK

1.57

Inter Turku

1.86

Inter Turku creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

2.29

creates per match

2.23

1.50

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

SJK

2.29

Inter Turku

2.23

allows per match

SJK

1.50

Inter Turku

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SJK or draw

55%

SJK or Inter Turku

78%

Draw or Inter Turku

67%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+

16%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals

79%

SJK 2+ goals

46%

SJK 3+ goals

21%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

84%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

55%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)

42%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 2.29 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.57

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SJK scores more

33%

level

22%

Inter Turku scores more

45%

Inter Turku at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff