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SJK vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

SJK
SJK
Preview
16:00
Gnistan
Gnistan
8/7/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 19OmaSp Stadion
Big match
45%
SJK
model favours
45%24%31%

SJK score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SJK45%
×Draw24%
Gnistan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.66
Gnistan
1.33

SJK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

creates per match

SJK
1.50
Gnistan
1.39

allows per match

SJK
1.28
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SJK or draw
69%
SJK or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
55%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
23%
Gnistan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
81%
SJK 2+ goals
49%
SJK 3+ goals
23%
Gnistan 1+ goals
74%
Gnistan 2+ goals
38%
Gnistan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
59%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gnistan attack 1.39 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SJK scores more
45%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
31%

SJK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 85% of SJK’s matches
  • 75% of SJK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Gnistan score first in only 35% of matches
  • Gnistan win just 18% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 70% of Gnistan’s matches
  • 42% of SJK’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
SJK
LWDDL
Gnistan
WLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK face Gnistan (Veikkausliiga)

Veikkausliiga returns with SJK hosting Gnistan. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SJK host Gnistan at OmaSp Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.