SJK Akatemia 3–4 PK-35: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SJK Akatemia

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

PK-35

Weslen Júnior 88'

A. Heino 67'

T. Koivisto 16'

F. Troni 90+2'

O. García 34', 8'

E. Terävä 7'

10/8/2022

Ykkönen · Relegation Round - 2OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SJK Akatemia52%

×Draw22%

PK-3525%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchPK-35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.27

SJK Akatemia

1.92

PK-35

1.27

SJK Akatemia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

1.76

creates per match

1.00

1.55

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

1.76

PK-35

1.00

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

1.55

PK-35

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

PK-35 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

75%

SJK Akatemia or PK-35

78%

Draw or PK-35

48%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

30%

PK-35 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

85%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

57%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

30%

PK-35 1+ goals

72%

PK-35 2+ goals

36%

PK-35 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

67%

PK-35 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

PK-35 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.76 + PK-35 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

PK-35 attack 1.00 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

52%

level

22%

PK-35 scores more

25%

SJK Akatemia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

8'

16'

34'

43'

K. Rintamaki

46'

A. Mekki← B. Akdogan

50'

A. Heino← O. Pihlaja

62'

N. Kaijasilta← N. Tykkyläinen

62'

F. Troni← H. Mohamed

67'

A. Heino

70'

O. Günes← T. Pahkala

78'

O. Väistö← K. Rintamäki

78'

M. Koskinen← R. Nevalainen

78'

V. Salmikivi← O. García

87'

L. Rodríguez← P. Aaltonen

88'

Weslen Júnior

90'

V. Salmikivi

90+2'

F. Troni

SJK

PK-35

30

Knuuttila

3

Kuusijärv

6

▼

Aaltonen

21

▼

Tykkyläin

16

▼

Nevalaine

13

⚽

Terävä

23

Tainio

17

▼

Mohamed

4

Jama

8

Adam

11

⚽2

▼

García

32

Kankaanpä

2

▼

Rintamäki

23

Lahdenmäk

3

▼

Akdogan

16

⚽

Koivisto

27

Yegbe

22

Gasc

5

▼

Pahkala

25

Hänninen

4

▼

Pihlaja

18

⚽

Júnior

Manager: B. Page

46'▲A. Mekki←▼B. Akdogan

50'▲A. Heino←▼O. Pihlaja

70'▲O. Günes←▼T. Pahkala

78'▲O. Väistö←▼K. Rintamäki

SJK Akatemia substitutes

26Mekki13Heino30Günes47Väistö52Mäenpää57Honkola60Heinämäki

Manager: K. Raimi

62'▲N. Kaijasilta←▼N. Tykkyläinen

62'▲F. Troni←▼H. Mohamed

78'▲M. Koskinen←▼R. Nevalainen

78'▲V. Salmikivi←▼O. García

87'▲L. Rodríguez←▼P. Aaltonen

PK-35 substitutes

10Kaijasilta15Troni7Koskinen58Salmikivi27Rodríguez25Tamminen

Ykkönen: SJK Akatemia 3–4 PK-35

PK-35 beat SJK Akatemia 4-3 in Ykkönen on October 8, 2022.

Goals: E. Terävä (7'), O. García (8', 34'), T. Koivisto (16'), A. Heino (67'), Weslen Júnior (88'), F. Troni (90+2').

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK Akatemia vs PK-35 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: SJK Akatemia 3–4 PK-35