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SJK Akatemia vs Klubi-04 — Ykkösliiga 2026

SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
Preview
15:00
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
8/30/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageOmaSp Stadion
Big match
39%
Klubi-04
model favours
36%25%39%

SJK Akatemia score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SJK Akatemia36%
×Draw25%
Klubi-0439%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK Akatemia
1.38
Klubi-04
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 21 away

creates per match

SJK Akatemia
1.37
Klubi-04
1.57

allows per match

SJK Akatemia
1.31
Klubi-04
1.38

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par
Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

Klubi-04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw
61%
SJK Akatemia or Klubi-04
75%
Draw or Klubi-04
64%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
16%
Klubi-04 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
75%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
40%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
16%
Klubi-04 1+ goals
76%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
42%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
48%
Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.37 + Klubi-04 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Klubi-04 attack 1.57 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more
36%
level
25%
Klubi-04 scores more
39%

Klubi-04 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Klubi-04 score first in only 29% of matches
  • Klubi-04 win just 10% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 71% of Klubi-04’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 35% of SJK Akatemia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Akatemia
DDDLL
Klubi-04
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK Akatemia vs Klubi-04 — Match Preview

SJK Akatemia face Klubi-04 on August 30, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SJK Akatemia host Klubi-04 at OmaSp Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.