SJK Akatemia 5–3 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SJK Akatemia

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

KäPa

Babacar Fati 90+3'

D. Cukici 68'

M. Arsalo 33'

Weslen Júnior 28'

A. Mekki 20'

T. Lahdensuo 48'

R. Huhtala 37', 11'

5/6/2023

Ykkönen · Round 4OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SJK Akatemia51%

×Draw21%

KäPa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.49

SJK Akatemia

2.06

KäPa

1.49

SJK Akatemia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

1.76

creates per match

1.43

1.55

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

1.76

KäPa

1.43

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

1.55

KäPa

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

72%

SJK Akatemia or KäPa

79%

Draw or KäPa

49%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

29%

KäPa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

87%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

61%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

34%

KäPa 1+ goals

77%

KäPa 2+ goals

44%

KäPa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

64%

KäPa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.76 + KäPa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

KäPa attack 1.43 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

51%

level

21%

KäPa scores more

28%

SJK Akatemia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

20'

28'

32'

33'

37'

46'

M. Söderbäck← C. NSombo

48'

T. Lahdensuo

50'

Weslen Junior

54'

A. Hellemaa← M. Turunen

54'

K. Paananen← O. Günes

57'

A. Soiniemi

63'

I. Kärsämä← T. Lahdensuo

68'

D. Cukici

70'

A. Tervaniemi← A. Mekki

73'

D. Cukici

73'

M. Arsalo

79'

B. Rekola← J. Kekarainen

82'

A. Hellemaa

85'

C. Lönnqvist← O. Adawi

89'

N. Lehtonen← Weslen Júnior

90+4'

C. Lonnqvist

90+3'

Babacar Fati

SJK

KäPa

1

Nokelaine

25

Kinnunen

16

Lappalain

4

⚽2

Huhtala

5

Soiniemi

7

▼

N'Sombo

8

Forsman

6

▼

Adawi

28

▼

Kekaraine

9

Yokochi

27

⚽

▼

Lahdensuo

35

Huuhtanen

33

⚽

2

37

16

36

⚽

Cukici

39

⚽

Arsalo

13

⚽

▼

Mekki

11

⚽

▼

Júnior

9

▼

Turunen

30

▼

Günes

Manager: S. Grieve

54'▲A. Hellemaa←▼M. Turunen

54'▲K. Paananen←▼O. Günes

70'▲A. Tervaniemi←▼A. Mekki

89'▲N. Lehtonen←▼Weslen Júnior

SJK Akatemia substitutes

25Hellemaa31Paananen28Tervaniemi17Lehtonen19Silverio21Väistö60Kaunismäki

Manager: Jordi Aluja

46'▲M. Söderbäck←▼C. NSombo

63'▲I. Kärsämä←▼T. Lahdensuo

79'▲B. Rekola←▼J. Kekarainen

85'▲C. Lönnqvist←▼O. Adawi

KäPa substitutes

10Söderbäck23Kärsämä80Rekola17Lönnqvist3Heikurinen12Pulkkinen21Piispa