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SJK Akatemia vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
Preview
13:00
JäPS
JäPS
9/6/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageOmaSp Stadion
Big match
45%
SJK Akatemia
model favours
45%24%32%

JäPS score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SJK Akatemia45%
×Draw24%
JäPS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK Akatemia
1.70
JäPS
1.39

SJK Akatemia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

SJK Akatemia
1.37
JäPS
1.47

allows per match

SJK Akatemia
1.31
JäPS
2.03

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw
68%
SJK Akatemia or JäPS
76%
Draw or JäPS
55%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
24%
JäPS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
82%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
51%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
24%
JäPS 1+ goals
75%
JäPS 2+ goals
40%
JäPS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
59%
JäPS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.37 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.70

JäPS attack 1.47 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more
45%
level
24%
JäPS scores more
32%

SJK Akatemia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • SJK Akatemia score first in only 14% of matches
  • SJK Akatemia win just 9% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 35% of SJK Akatemia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Akatemia
DDDLL
JäPS
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SJK Akatemia host JäPS

September 6, 2026: SJK Akatemia take on JäPS in Ykkösliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SJK Akatemia host JäPS at OmaSp Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.