SJK Akatemia 3–4 JäPS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SJK Akatemia

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

JäPS

J. Muzinga 64'

O. Pihlaja 59'

R. Heidari 32' (OG)

H. Kuosa 74'

A. Ulmanen 46'

A. Ristola 20'

O. Valto 5'

8/6/2022

Ykkönen · Round 12OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SJK Akatemia52%

×Draw22%

JäPS27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchJäPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.37

SJK Akatemia

1.98

JäPS

1.37

SJK Akatemia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

1.76

creates per match

1.19

1.55

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

1.76

JäPS

1.19

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

1.55

JäPS

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

JäPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

73%

SJK Akatemia or JäPS

78%

Draw or JäPS

48%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

30%

JäPS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

86%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

59%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

31%

JäPS 1+ goals

75%

JäPS 2+ goals

40%

JäPS 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

66%

JäPS (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.76 + JäPS defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

JäPS attack 1.19 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

52%

level

22%

JäPS scores more

27%

SJK Akatemia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

O. Valto

20'

A. Ristola

32'

R. HeidariOwn goal

42'

46'

46'

46'

46'

52'

59'

64'

74'

76'

V. Meriläinen← H. Khayat

78'

T. Pahkala← V. Hänninen

81'

E. Rrustemi← O. Pihlaja

88'

S. Sipola

90+2'

V. Olsbo

SJK

JäPS

1

Laiho

25

⚽

Valto

3

Ceesay

2

Palmasto

8

🥅

Heidari

4

▼

Abdi

21

▼

Mehmeti

22

▼

Kassim

9

⚽

Ristola

7

▼

Khayat

88

⚽

1

24

21

14

16

27

25

▼

Hänninen

36

Cukici

4

⚽

▼

Pihlaja

30

Günes

39

⚽

Muzinga

Manager: B. Page

78'▲T. Pahkala←▼V. Hänninen

81'▲E. Rrustemi←▼O. Pihlaja

SJK Akatemia substitutes

5Pahkala7Rrustemi3Akdogan32Kankaanpää48Hyytinen59Löytökorpi52Mäenpää

Manager: O. Partonen

46'▲E. Banza←▼L. Kassim

46'▲J. Ärilä←▼A. Abdi

46'▲H. Kuosa←▼A. Mehmeti

76'▲V. Meriläinen←▼H. Khayat

JäPS substitutes

6Banza17Ärilä19Kuosa20Meriläinen5Kepot99Mustafa

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs JäPS

JäPS beat SJK Akatemia 4-3 in Ykkönen on August 6, 2022.

Goals: O. Valto (5'), A. Ristola (20'), R. Heidari (32' o.g.), A. Ulmanen (46'), O. Pihlaja (59'), J. Muzinga (64'), H. Kuosa (74').

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK Akatemia vs JäPS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs JäPS