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SJK Akatemia vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Gnistan
Gnistan
8/2/2020YkkönenYkkönen · Round 5OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SJK Akatemia43%
×Draw23%
Gnistan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK Akatemia
1.79
Gnistan
1.56

SJK Akatemia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 51 away

creates per match

SJK Akatemia
1.76
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

SJK Akatemia
1.55
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw
66%
SJK Akatemia or Gnistan
77%
Draw or Gnistan
57%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
23%
Gnistan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
83%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
53%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
26%
Gnistan 1+ goals
79%
Gnistan 2+ goals
46%
Gnistan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
56%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.76 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gnistan attack 1.57 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more
43%
level
23%
Gnistan scores more
34%

SJK Akatemia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: SJK Akatemia 2–2 Gnistan

SJK Akatemia and Gnistan drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.