SJK Akatemia 2–2 FF Jaro: Result & Stats

SJK Akatemia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FF Jaro

D. Säily 85'

K. Matila 83'

A. Ramsay 37', 21'

1/31/2020

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Wallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SJK Akatemia15%

×Draw16%

FF Jaro69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchFF Jaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.73

SJK Akatemia

1.21

FF Jaro

2.73

FF Jaro creates 126% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.89

creates per match

2.35

3.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

0.89

FF Jaro

2.35

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

3.11

FF Jaro

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

FF Jaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

31%

SJK Akatemia or FF Jaro

84%

Draw or FF Jaro

85%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

6%

FF Jaro wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

70%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

34%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

12%

FF Jaro 1+ goals

93%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

75%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

18%

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 0.89, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 0.89 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + SJK Akatemia defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

15%

level

16%

FF Jaro scores more

69%

FF Jaro at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

37'

56'

68'

69'

A. Bjonbäck← J. Remesaho

70'

S. Sipola← L. Pelkkala

74'

K. Matila← N. Kivimäki

74'

O. Adawi← E. Hiekkanen

83'

K. Matila

85'

D. Säily

SJK

FF

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Dunne

56'▲D. Säily←▼O. Pihlaja

68'▲J. Kiuru←▼S. Vuorela

70'▲S. Sipola←▼L. Pelkkala

74'▲K. Matila←▼N. Kivimäki

74'▲O. Adawi←▼E. Hiekkanen

SJK Akatemia substitutes

SäilyKiuruSipolaMatilaAdawiPeräahoOlsbo

Manager: N. Käcko

69'▲A. Bjonbäck←▼J. Remesaho

FF Jaro substitutes

BjonbäckOlusanyaBrunellSandströmSnellman

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs FF Jaro

SJK Akatemia and FF Jaro drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on January 31, 2020.

Goals: A. Ramsay (21', 37'), K. Matila (83'), D. Säily (85').

The match was played at Wallsport Areena in Seinäjoki.

SJK Akatemia vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs FF Jaro