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Sitatunga vs Adjidja — Championnat National 2019

Sitatunga
Sitatunga
FT
1 – 1
Adjidja
Adjidja
11/28/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sitatunga40%
×Draw32%
Adjidja28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sitatunga
1.05
Adjidja
0.83

Sitatunga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sitatunga
0.98
Adjidja
0.64

allows per match

Sitatunga
1.02
Adjidja
1.13

finishing

Sitatunga+0.00on par
Adjidja+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitatunga ↓

Adjidja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sitatunga or draw
72%
Sitatunga or Adjidja
68%
Draw or Adjidja
60%

Winning margin

Sitatunga wins by 2+
16%
Adjidja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sitatunga 1+ goals
65%
Sitatunga 2+ goals
28%
Sitatunga 3+ goals
9%
Adjidja 1+ goals
56%
Adjidja 2+ goals
20%
Adjidja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sitatunga (draw refunded)
59%
Adjidja (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitatunga at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Adjidja away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitatunga attack 0.98 + Adjidja defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Adjidja attack 0.64 + Sitatunga defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sitatunga scores more
40%
level
32%
Adjidja scores more
28%

Sitatunga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sitatunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sitatunga vs Adjidja

Sitatunga and Adjidja drew 1-1 in Championnat National on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.