Istiqlol 4–1 CSKA Pomir: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

4 – 1

CSKA Pomir

5/26/2012

Vysshaya Liga · Round 8Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Istiqlol67%

×Draw20%

CSKA Pomir13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchCSKA Pomir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.80

Istiqlol

2.09

CSKA Pomir

0.80

Istiqlol creates 161% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

3.15

creates per match

1.14

0.47

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Istiqlol

3.15

CSKA Pomir

1.14

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.47

CSKA Pomir

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

CSKA Pomir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

87%

Istiqlol or CSKA Pomir

80%

Draw or CSKA Pomir

33%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

42%

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

88%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

62%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

34%

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

55%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

19%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

83%

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.47 · 34 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.15 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 2.09

CSKA Pomir attack 1.14 + Istiqlol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Istiqlol scores more

67%

level

20%

CSKA Pomir scores more

13%

Istiqlol at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff