Sioni 0–1 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Sioni

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Samtredia

3/29/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Tamaz Stepania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sioni52%

×Draw24%

Samtredia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SioniExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.05

Sioni

1.66

Samtredia

1.05

Sioni creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 57 away

1.98

creates per match

1.16

0.94

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sioni

1.98

Samtredia

1.16

allows per match

Sioni

0.94

Samtredia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sioni or draw

76%

Sioni or Samtredia

76%

Draw or Samtredia

48%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+

28%

Samtredia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals

81%

Sioni 2+ goals

49%

Sioni 3+ goals

23%

Samtredia 1+ goals

65%

Samtredia 2+ goals

28%

Samtredia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)

68%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.66

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sioni scores more

52%

level

24%

Samtredia scores more

24%

Sioni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff