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Sioni vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Sioni
Sioni
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Samtredia
Samtredia
12/11/2022Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Relegation RoundStadioni Tamaz Stepania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sioni43%
×Draw25%
Samtredia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sioni
1.52
Samtredia
1.28

Sioni creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sioni
1.03
Samtredia
1.03

allows per match

Sioni
1.53
Samtredia
2.00

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sioni or draw
68%
Sioni or Samtredia
75%
Draw or Samtredia
57%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+
21%
Samtredia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals
78%
Sioni 2+ goals
45%
Sioni 3+ goals
20%
Samtredia 1+ goals
72%
Samtredia 2+ goals
37%
Samtredia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)
57%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.03 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Sioni defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sioni scores more
43%
level
25%
Samtredia scores more
32%

Sioni at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sioni vs Samtredia

Samtredia beat Sioni 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Tamaz Stepania in Bolnisi.