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Simba vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
1 – 1
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
9/10/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Simba41%
×Draw31%
Groupe Bazano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.09
Groupe Bazano
0.86

Simba creates 27% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 73 away

creates per match

Simba
0.92
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Simba
1.03
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Simba or draw
72%
Simba or Groupe Bazano
69%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
59%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
17%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
66%
Simba 2+ goals
30%
Simba 3+ goals
10%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
58%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
21%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
59%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 0.92 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Simba defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Simba scores more
41%
level
31%
Groupe Bazano scores more
28%

Simba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Simba 1–1 Groupe Bazano

Simba and Groupe Bazano drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.