Simba Bhora 1–0 Herentals: Result & Stats

Simba Bhora

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Herentals

11/4/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 30Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Simba Bhora45%

×Draw33%

Herentals22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Simba BhoraExpected goals in this matchHerentals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.65

Simba Bhora

1.05

Herentals

0.65

Simba Bhora creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 95 away

1.13

creates per match

0.74

0.55

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Simba Bhora

1.13

Herentals

0.74

allows per match

Simba Bhora

0.55

Herentals

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Herentals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw

78%

Simba Bhora or Herentals

67%

Draw or Herentals

55%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+

18%

Herentals wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals

65%

Simba Bhora 2+ goals

28%

Simba Bhora 3+ goals

9%

Herentals 1+ goals

48%

Herentals 2+ goals

14%

Herentals 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)

67%

Herentals (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Herentals attack 0.74 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Simba Bhora scores more

45%

level

33%

Herentals scores more

22%

Simba Bhora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff