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Simba Bhora vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
4/27/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Simba Bhora52%
×Draw31%
Green Fuel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.19
Green Fuel
0.55

Simba Bhora creates 116% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
83%
Simba Bhora or Green Fuel
69%
Draw or Green Fuel
48%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
23%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
70%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
33%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
12%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
42%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
11%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
75%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
52%
level
31%
Green Fuel scores more
17%

Simba Bhora at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba Bhora vs Green Fuel

Green Fuel beat Simba Bhora 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 27, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.