Silver Strikers vs Mitundu Baptist

Silver Strikers

Preview

12:30

Mitundu Baptist

1/17/2027

Super League · Round 26

70%

Silver Strikers

model favours

70%22%8%

Silver Strikers and Mitundu Baptist have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

29%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Silver Strikers70%

×Draw22%

Mitundu Baptist8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silver StrikersExpected goals in this matchMitundu Baptist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.43

Silver Strikers

1.75

Mitundu Baptist

0.43

Silver Strikers creates 307% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

0.25

0.62

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Silver Strikers

2.00

Mitundu Baptist

0.25

allows per match

Silver Strikers

0.62

Mitundu Baptist

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Strikers ↓

Mitundu Baptist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Silver Strikers or draw

92%

Silver Strikers or Mitundu Baptist

78%

Draw or Mitundu Baptist

30%

Winning margin

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

42%

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

83%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

52%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

25%

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

35%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

7%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

89%

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Strikers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 82 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Strikers attack 2.00 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Silver Strikers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Silver Strikers scores more

70%

level

22%

Mitundu Baptist scores more

8%

Silver Strikers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Strikers

DWDWD

Baptist

DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff