Silva 3–1 Viveiro: Result & Stats

Silva

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viveiro

Manuel Máquez 81'

Alejandro Lorenzo 71'

Rodri Parafita 41'

Nico Madero 88'

11/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Silva44%

×Draw27%

Viveiro28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilvaExpected goals in this matchViveiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Silva

1.35

Viveiro

1.02

Silva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 99 away

1.10

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Silva

1.10

Viveiro

0.97

allows per match

Silva

1.06

Viveiro

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silva+0.00on par

Viveiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Viveiro →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Silva or draw

72%

Silva or Viveiro

73%

Draw or Viveiro

56%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+

21%

Viveiro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals

74%

Silva 2+ goals

39%

Silva 3+ goals

15%

Viveiro 1+ goals

64%

Viveiro 2+ goals

27%

Viveiro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)

61%

Viveiro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Viveiro away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Viveiro defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Viveiro attack 0.97 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Silva scores more

44%

level

27%

Viveiro scores more

28%

Silva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Rodri Parafita

46'

Álvaro Rey← José Souto

55'

Arturo Calvo← Marcos Gonzalez

59'

J. Pose← Alex Sánchez

71'

Alejandro Lorenzo

74'

Dani Fernández← Agustín Pereira

75'

Xusto Pardeiro← Rodri Parafita

81'

Manuel Máquez

82'

Victor Casais← João Paulo dos Santos

82'

R. Ugarte← Alejandro Lorenzo

82'

Lucky← Asier Burundarena

88'

Nico Madero

Silva

Viveiro

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Lorenzo

▼

Santos

Manager: Javier Bardanca

46'▲Álvaro Rey←▼José Souto

59'▲J. Pose←▼Alex Sánchez

75'▲Xusto Pardeiro←▼Rodri Parafita

82'▲Victor Casais←▼João Paulo dos Santos

82'▲R. Ugarte←▼Alejandro Lorenzo

Silva substitutes

ReyPosePardeiroCasaisUgarte

Manager: David Páez

55'▲Arturo Calvo←▼Marcos Gonzalez

74'▲Dani Fernández←▼Agustín Pereira

82'▲Lucky←▼Asier Burundarena

Viveiro substitutes

CalvoFernándezLucky

Match Recap: Silva vs Viveiro

Silva beat Viveiro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 13, 2021.

Goals: Rodri Parafita (41'), Alejandro Lorenzo (71'), Manuel Máquez (81'), Nico Madero (88').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso in La Coruña.

Silva vs Viveiro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Silva vs Viveiro