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Silva vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Silva
Silva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barco
Barco
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Silva39%
×Draw28%
Barco33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silva
1.26
Barco
1.14

Silva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 78 away

creates per match

Silva
1.10
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Silva
1.06
Barco
1.42

finishing

Silva+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Silva or draw
67%
Silva or Barco
72%
Draw or Barco
61%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+
17%
Barco wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals
72%
Silva 2+ goals
36%
Silva 3+ goals
13%
Barco 1+ goals
68%
Barco 2+ goals
32%
Barco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)
54%
Barco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Barco attack 1.21 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Silva scores more
39%
level
28%
Barco scores more
33%

Silva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Silva 0–1 Barco

Barco beat Silva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso in La Coruña.