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Silkeborg vs Aarhus — Superliga 2018

Silkeborg
Silkeborg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus
Aarhus
3/10/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Silkeborg37%
×Draw26%
Aarhus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silkeborg
1.37
Aarhus
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 132 away

creates per match

Silkeborg
1.44
Aarhus
1.33

allows per match

Silkeborg
1.41
Aarhus
1.30

finishing

Silkeborg+0.00on par
Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw
63%
Silkeborg or Aarhus
74%
Draw or Aarhus
63%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+
17%
Aarhus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals
75%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
40%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
16%
Aarhus 1+ goals
75%
Aarhus 2+ goals
40%
Aarhus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)
50%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.44 + Aarhus defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Aarhus attack 1.33 + Silkeborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Silkeborg scores more
37%
level
26%
Aarhus scores more
37%

Silkeborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silkeborg vs Aarhus

Aarhus beat Silkeborg 1-0 in Superliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at JYSK park in Silkeborg.