Sileks 1–0 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

Sileks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vardar Skopje

12/8/2024

First League · Round 18Gradski stadion Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sileks45%

×Draw27%

Vardar Skopje28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SileksExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.03

Sileks

1.37

Vardar Skopje

1.03

Sileks creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

1.61

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sileks

1.61

Vardar Skopje

1.14

allows per match

Sileks

0.92

Vardar Skopje

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sileks or draw

72%

Sileks or Vardar Skopje

73%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

55%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+

21%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals

75%

Sileks 2+ goals

40%

Sileks 3+ goals

16%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

64%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

28%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)

61%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sileks scores more

45%

level

27%

Vardar Skopje scores more

28%

Sileks at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff