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Šilas vs BFA — Cup 2020

Šilas
Šilas
FT
2 – 3
BFA
BFA
6/30/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundKazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Šilas14%
×Draw14%
BFA72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.47
BFA
3.31

BFA creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.60
BFA
3.83

allows per match

Šilas
2.80
BFA
1.33

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
28%
Šilas or BFA
86%
Draw or BFA
86%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
6%
BFA wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
77%
Šilas 2+ goals
43%
Šilas 3+ goals
18%
BFA 1+ goals
96%
BFA 2+ goals
83%
BFA 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
16%
BFA (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

BFA away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.60 + BFA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

BFA attack 3.83 + Šilas defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Šilas scores more
14%
level
14%
BFA scores more
72%

BFA at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šilas 2 – 3 BFA

BFA beat Šilas 3-2 in Cup on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Kazlų Rūdos stadionas in Kazlų Rūda.