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Siheung Citizen vs Gangneung City — K3 League 2026

Siheung Citizen
Siheung Citizen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gangneung City
Gangneung City
11/4/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 29Jeongwang Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Siheung Citizen45%
×Draw27%
Gangneung City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siheung Citizen
1.42
Gangneung City
1.05

Siheung Citizen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 108 away

creates per match

Siheung Citizen
1.53
Gangneung City
1.07

allows per match

Siheung Citizen
1.03
Gangneung City
1.30

finishing

Siheung Citizen+0.00on par
Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siheung Citizen ↓

Gangneung City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Siheung Citizen or draw
72%
Siheung Citizen or Gangneung City
73%
Draw or Gangneung City
55%

Winning margin

Siheung Citizen wins by 2+
22%
Gangneung City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siheung Citizen 1+ goals
76%
Siheung Citizen 2+ goals
41%
Siheung Citizen 3+ goals
17%
Gangneung City 1+ goals
65%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
28%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)
62%
Gangneung City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siheung Citizen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siheung Citizen attack 1.53 + Gangneung City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gangneung City attack 1.07 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Siheung Citizen scores more
45%
level
27%
Gangneung City scores more
28%

Siheung Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Siheung Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siheung Citizen vs Gangneung City

Siheung Citizen beat Gangneung City 1-0 in K3 League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Jeongwang Sports Park in Siheung-si.