Sigma Olomouc 0–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

11/23/2019

Czech Liga · Round 17Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc27%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.59

Sigma Olomouc

1.12

Slavia Praha

1.59

Slavia Praha creates 42% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 121 away

1.38

creates per match

1.95

1.24

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.38

Slavia Praha

1.95

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.24

Slavia Praha

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

52%

Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

73%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

10%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

67%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

31%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

10%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

80%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

47%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

36%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Slavia Praha attack 1.95 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

27%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

48%

Slavia Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

20'

39'

43'

44'

46'

M. van Buren← S. Tecl

62'

Ladislav Takács

74'

Pablo González← J. Plšek

77'

Pablo Gonzalez Juarez

80'

M. Hála← T. Zahradníček

82'

Ondřej Kúdela

89'

M. Chytil← O. Zmrzlý

90'

Šimon Falta

Statistics

SigmaSlavia

Overview

3Corners8

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1