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Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
Preview
14:00
Plzen
Plzen
2/20/2027Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Andruv stadion
Big match
40%
Plzen
model favours
34%26%40%

Sigma Olomouc are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc34%
×Draw26%
Plzen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
Plzen
1.36

Plzen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
Plzen
1.10

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
60%
Sigma Olomouc or Plzen
74%
Draw or Plzen
66%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
15%
Plzen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
71%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
35%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
13%
Plzen 1+ goals
74%
Plzen 2+ goals
39%
Plzen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
46%
Plzen (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Plzen attack 1.48 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
34%
level
26%
Plzen scores more
40%

Plzen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sigma Olomouc have won 3 in a row
  • Plzen have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Sigma Olomouc win just 29% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sigma Olomouc
Balanced
Plzen
Possession-dominant
44%Possession53%
69%Pass accuracy77%
9.2ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.49xG1.81
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sigma OlomoucPlzen

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 90%
1–20–11–22–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Olomouc
WWW
Plzen
WLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sigma Olomouc face Plzen (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga returns with Sigma Olomouc hosting Plzen. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sigma Olomouc host Plzen at Andruv stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.