Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Bohemians 1905

3/2/2024

Czech Liga · Round 23Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc45%

×Draw26%

Bohemians 190529%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Sigma Olomouc

1.50

Bohemians 1905

1.16

Sigma Olomouc creates 29% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

1.38

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.38

Bohemians 1905

1.08

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.24

Bohemians 1905

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

71%

Sigma Olomouc or Bohemians 1905

74%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

55%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

22%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

78%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

44%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

19%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

69%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

32%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

61%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

45%

level

26%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

29%

Sigma Olomouc at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff