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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Zlín U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zlín U19
Zlín U19
10/29/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1953%
×Draw22%
Zlín U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.01
Zlín U19
1.33

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Zlín U19
1.62

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Zlín U19
1.89

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
75%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Zlín U19
78%
Draw or Zlín U19
47%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
31%
Zlín U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
87%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
59%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
32%
Zlín U19 1+ goals
74%
Zlín U19 2+ goals
38%
Zlín U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Zlín U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.01

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
53%
level
22%
Zlín U19 scores more
25%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Sigma Olomouc U19 1–2 Zlín U19

Zlín U19 beat Sigma Olomouc U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.