Sigma Olomouc U19 1–0 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Sigma Olomouc U19

FT

1 – 0

Viktoria Plzeň U19

10/3/2020

1. Liga U19 · Round 7Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1951%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Plzeň U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Plzeň U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.30

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.88

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.30

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

2.13

creates per match

1.57

1.03

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.13

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.57

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.03

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw

73%

Sigma Olomouc U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19

77%

Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19

49%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

29%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

85%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

56%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

29%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals

73%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals

37%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

51%

level

23%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more

27%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff