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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Pardubice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
10/21/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 12Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1952%
×Draw23%
Pardubice U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.89
Pardubice U19
1.28

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Pardubice U19
1.53

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Pardubice U19
1.65

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Pardubice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
74%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Pardubice U19
77%
Draw or Pardubice U19
48%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
29%
Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
85%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
56%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
29%
Pardubice U19 1+ goals
72%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
37%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Pardubice U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Pardubice U19 attack 1.53 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
52%
level
23%
Pardubice U19 scores more
26%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Sigma Olomouc U19 1–0 Pardubice U19

Sigma Olomouc U19 beat Pardubice U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.