Sigma Olomouc U19 1–0 České Budějovice U19

Sigma Olomouc U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

České Budějovice U19

11/4/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 14Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1954%

×Draw21%

České Budějovice U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc U19Expected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.40

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.14

České Budějovice U19

1.40

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

2.13

creates per match

1.77

1.03

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.13

České Budějovice U19

1.77

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.03

České Budějovice U19

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw

75%

Sigma Olomouc U19 or České Budějovice U19

79%

Draw or České Budějovice U19

46%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

33%

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

88%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

63%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

36%

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals

75%

České Budějovice U19 2+ goals

41%

České Budějovice U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

68%

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.14

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

České Budějovice U19 scores more

25%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff