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Sigma Olomouc II vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
CANC
13:00
Vyškov
Vyškov
11/11/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II52%
×Draw24%
Vyškov24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
1.74
Vyškov
1.09

Sigma Olomouc II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
2.17
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
0.93
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
76%
Sigma Olomouc II or Vyškov
76%
Draw or Vyškov
48%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
29%
Vyškov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
82%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
52%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
25%
Vyškov 1+ goals
66%
Vyškov 2+ goals
30%
Vyškov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
69%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.17 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
52%
level
24%
Vyškov scores more
24%

Sigma Olomouc II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sigma Olomouc II host Vyškov

November 11, 2020: Sigma Olomouc II take on Vyškov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sigma Olomouc II host Vyškov at Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.