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Siete Villas vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Siete Villas38%
×Draw26%
Guarnizo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.34
Guarnizo
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
65%
Siete Villas or Guarnizo
74%
Draw or Guarnizo
62%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
17%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
74%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
39%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
15%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
72%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
36%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
52%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Siete Villas scores more
38%
level
26%
Guarnizo scores more
35%

Siete Villas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 0–0 Guarnizo

Siete Villas and Guarnizo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.