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Siegburger SV vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hürth
Hürth
3/20/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Siegburger SV49%
×Draw22%
Hürth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
1.96
Hürth
1.45

Siegburger SV creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 66 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
71%
Siegburger SV or Hürth
78%
Draw or Hürth
51%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
28%
Hürth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
86%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
58%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
31%
Hürth 1+ goals
77%
Hürth 2+ goals
42%
Hürth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
63%
Hürth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hürth attack 1.41 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
49%
level
22%
Hürth scores more
29%

Siegburger SV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siegburger SV vs Hürth

Hürth beat Siegburger SV 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg in Siegburg.