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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2026

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
3/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu46%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Teda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.68
Tianjin Teda
1.31

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.37
Tianjin Teda
0.96

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.66
Tianjin Teda
1.99

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.13scores more
Tianjin Teda-0.07on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
70%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Tianjin Teda
76%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
54%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
24%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
81%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
50%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
24%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
73%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
38%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
61%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.66 · 8 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.99 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.37 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
46%
level
24%
Tianjin Teda scores more
30%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda

Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 in Super League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.