Sichuan Jiuniu 0–2 Kunshan: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kunshan

9/13/2020

League One · Round 1Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu28%

×Draw28%

Kunshan44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchKunshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.34

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.02

Kunshan

1.34

Kunshan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

1.23

creates per match

1.86

0.82

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.23

Kunshan

1.86

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.82

Kunshan

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Kunshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

56%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Kunshan

72%

Draw or Kunshan

72%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

11%

Kunshan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

64%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

27%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

8%

Kunshan 1+ goals

74%

Kunshan 2+ goals

39%

Kunshan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

39%

Kunshan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

28%

level

28%

Kunshan scores more

44%

Kunshan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff