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Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Preview
15:30
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
10/31/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 35Siauliai central stadium
Big match
45%
Šiauliai
model favours
45%26%28%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Šiauliai45%
×Draw26%
Džiugas Telšiai28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.08

Šiauliai creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 100 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.35
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.52

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
72%
Šiauliai or Džiugas Telšiai
74%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
55%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
22%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
76%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
42%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
18%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
66%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
29%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
62%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.35 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Šiauliai scores more
45%
level
26%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
28%

Šiauliai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Šiauliai score first in only 32% of matches
  • 68% of Šiauliai’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Šiauliai
LLL
Telšiai
WDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Šiauliai host Džiugas Telšiai

October 31, 2026: Šiauliai take on Džiugas Telšiai in A Lyga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Šiauliai host Džiugas Telšiai at Siauliai central stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.