Šiauliai 1–3 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Šiauliai

FT

1 – 3

Džiugas Telšiai

D. Jankauskas 70'

R. Sakurai 90+1'

R. Stanulevicius 80'

M. Vasiliauskas 61'

8/7/2020

1 Lyga · Round 10Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Šiauliai49%

×Draw22%

Džiugas Telšiai28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠiauliaiExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.42

Šiauliai

1.93

Džiugas Telšiai

1.42

Šiauliai creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

2.79

creates per match

1.67

1.18

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Šiauliai

2.79

Džiugas Telšiai

1.67

allows per match

Šiauliai

1.18

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw

72%

Šiauliai or Džiugas Telšiai

78%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

51%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+

28%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals

85%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

57%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

30%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

76%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

41%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

63%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 2.79 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.93

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Šiauliai defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Šiauliai scores more

49%

level

22%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

28%

Šiauliai at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

M. Vasiliauskas

70'

D. Jankauskas

80'

R. Stanulevicius

90'

J. Petravicius

90+1'

R. Sakurai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff