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Šiauliai vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Preview
15:45
Banga
Banga
8/3/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 25Siauliai central stadium
Big match
44%
Šiauliai
model favours
44%28%29%

Banga score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Šiauliai44%
×Draw28%
Banga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.33
Banga
1.02

Šiauliai creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.35
Banga
0.87

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.17
Banga
1.32

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
71%
Šiauliai or Banga
72%
Draw or Banga
56%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
20%
Banga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
74%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
38%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
15%
Banga 1+ goals
64%
Banga 2+ goals
27%
Banga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
60%
Banga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.35 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Banga attack 0.87 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Šiauliai scores more
44%
level
28%
Banga scores more
29%

Šiauliai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Šiauliai score first in only 32% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Banga’s matches
  • 70% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 68% of Šiauliai’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Banga win just 21% of their away games
  • 31% of Banga’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Šiauliai
LLL
Banga
LWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Šiauliai host Banga

August 3, 2026: Šiauliai take on Banga in A Lyga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Šiauliai host Banga at Siauliai central stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.