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Šiauliai vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Banga
Banga
3/10/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 2Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Šiauliai44%
×Draw28%
Banga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.33
Banga
1.01

Šiauliai creates 32% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 111 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.37
Banga
0.87

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.16
Banga
1.30

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
72%
Šiauliai or Banga
72%
Draw or Banga
56%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
20%
Banga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
74%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
38%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
15%
Banga 1+ goals
64%
Banga 2+ goals
27%
Banga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
61%
Banga (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.37 + Banga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Banga attack 0.87 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Šiauliai scores more
44%
level
28%
Banga scores more
28%

Šiauliai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Šiauliai 0–0 Banga

Šiauliai and Banga drew 0-0 in A Lyga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.