Šiauliai 1–1 Banga: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Šiauliai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Banga

R. Lekiatas 85'

Renan Paulino 24'

5/22/2022

A Lyga · Round 14Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Šiauliai44%

×Draw28%

Banga29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠiauliaiExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Šiauliai

1.33

Banga

1.02

Šiauliai creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

0.87

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Šiauliai

1.35

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Šiauliai

1.17

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw

71%

Šiauliai or Banga

72%

Draw or Banga

56%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+

20%

Banga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals

74%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

38%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

15%

Banga 1+ goals

64%

Banga 2+ goals

27%

Banga 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

60%

Banga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.35 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Banga attack 0.87 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Šiauliai scores more

44%

level

28%

Banga scores more

29%

Šiauliai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

P. Srebalius

17'

V. Antuzis

24'

Renan Paulino

27'

E. Gasiunas

42'

S. Yoshikawa← V. Paulauskas

51'

E. Jankauskas

72'

M. Petrikas← D. Zubauskas

73'

G. Zabita← D. Dovydaitis

75'

K. Pliuskys

79'

M. Pikčiūnas← D. Romanovskij

81'

G. Zabita

85'

R. Lekiatas

90+3'

M. Petrikas

Šiauliai

Banga

1

5

19

21

7

95

⚽

Paulino

75

Stočkūnas

14

Žebrauska

79

▼

Paulauska

18

Srebalius

9

▼

1

2

18

77

⚽

Lekiatas

13

▼

7

11

10

29

▼

Dovydaiti

30

Gasiūnas

17

Jankauska

Manager: M. Čepas

73'▲G. Zabita←▼D. Dovydaitis

79'▲M. Pikčiūnas←▼D. Romanovskij

Šiauliai substitutes

28Zabita34Pikčiūnas3Gašpuitis5Mantinis6Jaseliūnas8Mantinis19Paulius22Amirzian61Baliutavičius82Jankauskas27Misiūnas

Manager: David Afonso

42'▲S. Yoshikawa←▼V. Paulauskas

72'▲M. Petrikas←▼D. Zubauskas

Banga substitutes

11Yoshikawa22Petrikas4Vainikaitis6Brilhante12Survila20Toleikis55Bertašius17Birgiola