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Shumen 2007 vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
2 – 2
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
10/19/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200752%
×Draw23%
Chernolomets 191926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
1.85
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

Shumen 2007 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
74%
Shumen 2007 or Chernolomets 1919
77%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
48%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
29%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
84%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
55%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
28%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
71%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
35%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
67%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
52%
level
23%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
26%

Shumen 2007 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Shumen 2007 2–2 Chernolomets 1919

Shumen 2007 and Chernolomets 1919 drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.